Macroeconomics

Deflationary Expansion: an Overshooting Perspective to the Recent Business Cycle in China

January 1, 2005

Gang Gong

Justin Yifu Lin

Abstract

Deflationary expansion has puzzled economists both in and outside China. We study this business cycles phenomenon within a model of discrete time dynamics. We find that deflationary expansion could be possible if driven by an overshooting in investing and if the state of the economy maintains high rate of growth. This expression is consistent with the recent variables. The high steady state of growth could be explained by the current institutional environment of China.

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