Japan First? Economic Security in a World of Uncertainty

Japan’s economic and national security depends on managing its economic, political and security relationships with its security guarantor and ally, the United States, and largest trading partner, China. The rise of China and protectionism in the US – most prominently but not limited to the America First agenda, involving increased strategic competition and a trade war between China and the US, the world’s two largest economies – has meant a much more uncertain international policy environment for countries like Japan, the world’s third largest economy. In this uncertain external policy environment, Japan has shown international leadership in its initiative to conclude the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) after the US withdrew from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), conclude the Japan–EU Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) and host the G20 summit. Japan has also signed a bilateral trade agreement with the US that is a departure from multilateral rules and norms, and introduced ‘economic security’ policies that include export controls and the tightening of foreign investment regulations for security reasons. Some small but potentially significant reforms to the machinery of government have taken place to better integrate economic policy with national security policy, resulting in the establishment of economic security divisions in key agencies and the Cabinet Office. There does not appear to be a clearly artic