Energy Outlook for Asia and the Pacific

The energy outlook aims to project the level of energy demand by 2030, estimate the investment requirements to meet the demand and the CO2 emissions that would be produced as a result of increasing energy consumption. Below are the findings of the study: ● Energy demand in Asia and the Pacific is projected to increase by about 80% between 2005 and 2030 at an annual rate of 2.4%, which represents a faster rate than the world average growth rate of 1.5%. Energy demand of developing member countries (DMCs) in the region will grow slightly faster at 2.6% per year through 2030 – driven by faster economic growth and infrastructure development. ● Coal will maintain the biggest share of energy demand of Asia and the Pacific at 38.3%. Despite maintaining the biggest share, as a result of energy efficiency improvement in the power and industry sectors – coal is projected to grow relatively slowly at 2.1% per year compared with the growth rate of primary energy demand at 2.4% per year. ● Increased demand of oil – growing at an annual rate of 2.2% – is not likely to be met by domestic production. Overall needs of oil import within the region will increase from 13.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2005 to 26.0 mb/d in 2030. ● Natural gas will register an annual growth rate of 3.6% through 2030 – the fastest growth rate of all fossil fuels – due to its ease of use and lower environmental burden. Asia and the Pacific as a whole will marginally become a net importer of natural gas by 2015 and about 24% of entire natural gas demand in Asia and the Pacific would have to be met by import. ● Nuclear energy demand will increase at 5.1% per year through 2030 – the fastest annual growth rate by energy type. This rapid growth in nuclear energy within the region is affected by the expansion of nuclear installed capacity in the People’s Republic of China. ● New and renewable energy (NRE) will represent the fourth-largest share of TPED, at 11.2% in 2030. In Asia and the Pacific, biomass will account for bulk of the NRE share. In view of the replacement of biomass with commercial energy sources, NRE is projected to increase slowly, at an annual rate of 1.3%. ● Electricity demand will increase at 3.4% per year driven by the increases in income level and infrastructure development. ● CO2 emissions in Asia and the Pacific are forecast to increase from 10,064.8 million tons of CO2 in 2005 to 17,763.3 million tons in 2030, growing at 2.3% per year. The projected growth rate of CO2 emissions represents a slightly slower growth rate than the projected energy demand growth of 2.4% per year. ● Asia and the Pacific will require a cumulative total of between $7.0 trillion (constant 2006 prices) and $9.7 trillion of investment to develop new energy infrastructure meeting the future energy demand increases.