State of the Bangladesh Economy in the run‐up to the National Election 2008

The objective of this report is to provide CPD’s assessment of the Bangladesh macroeconomicrnsituation as the country moves towards the elections. As is known, CPD carries out analysis andrnassessment of the movement of major macroeconomic indicators on an ongoing basis, carried outrnunder its flagship programme titled Independent Review of Bangladesh’s Development (IRBD). Inrnkeeping with this tradition an interim report is prepared around the middle of the fiscal year tornassess the performance of the economy during the first half of the year, and highlighting the majorrnchallenges which need to be addressed during the subsequent months to achieve major targets setrnout in the budget. This year the timing of this assessment was chosen a view to examine the state ofrnthe economy in the backdrop of the national elections. Indeed a close look at the electionrnmanifestos of various parties indicates an appreciation of the economic challenges that lie beforernthe country, a concern for the need to address these and an attempt to put forward variousrnsuggestions towards this. In this regard, the present report will also take a critical look at thernmanifestos which articulate their respective stances as they face the electorate with their respectivernprogrammes. Based on the analysis of the economy and examination of the manifesto, the reportrnidentifies a number of challenges which the newly elected government will need to undertake on arnpriority basis. It is hoped that such an analysis will be of use to the newly elected government as itrntakes on the responsibility of managing the economy in these times of great expectations and majorrnchallenges. As is known, the budget of FY 2008‐09 has set a growth target of 6.5 per cent. Thernpossibility of achieving this target has been questioned by various quarters in view of the ongoingrnglobal financial crisis and their possible consequences for the Bangladesh economy. The newlyrnelected government will only come into the scene when the current fiscal year has crossed half wayrnof the journey. This report also makes an assessment of whether growth targets set for FY 2008‐09rncan be met and identifies areas which will need to get priority if these are to be met.