Bilateral J-Curves between Pakistan and Her Trading Partners

Zehra Aftab, Sajawal Khan
JEL codes: 
PIDE Working Papers 2008:45

Earlier studies that investigated the J-Curve phenomenon for Pakistan employed aggregate trade data. These studies suffered from the aggregation bias problem. In order to overcome this constraint, this paper tests the effects of real exchange rate depreciation in the Pakistani Rupee on the bilateral trade balance between Pakistan and her 12 respective trade partners. These countries, together, account for almost half of Pakistans total trade. In order to differentiate between the long-run equilibrium and short-run disequilibrium dynamics, and also to deal with non-stationary data, the ARDL approach isused. The results do not provide any support for the standard J-curve phenomenon.